Predicting Fiscal Crises

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Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach
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In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches
Predicting Fiscal Crises
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This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results ar
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This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results ar
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
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We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Po
Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications
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This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since ma