Inflation Dynamics In Fyr Macedonia

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in FYR Macedonia written by Maral Shamloo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting.