Predicting Currency Crisis

Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-11-01 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.