Incorporating Climate Uncertainty Into Estimates Of Climate Change Impacts With Applications To Us And African Agriculture

Download or read book Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts, with applications to US and African agriculture written by Marshall Burke and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results.